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SPDN: An Inexpensive Way To Profit When The S&P 500 Falls

Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.

Looking For A Business

Finding a business to open is not as easy as it sounds. Pre-work is necessary if the business is to even survive. For example, when thinking about a brick and mortar store leg work is needed for location and the type business. First, an area is needed. One needs to search the target area and determine what businesses are already operating. That allows one to select a business that is new to that area, which assures customers. If the town or local area is not important, then choose a college town, with a location near the college. Second, the best location in any area is a street corner where there is heavy traffic, and with parking. Quickly it is seen that just renting a store building and filling it with products is not the best idea. Doing the homework is a must.An online business is harder to determine in some ways. In some it is easier. Setting up an online business is harder because the businesses are worldwide already. No doubt you have received all kinds of offers via email. And searching the Internet can be disheartening for it seems that anything and everything is already available. It is easier to set up online and cheaper running from free web sites to a some what costly dot.com. If you are fairly proficient with HTML, etc, then setting up a dot.com may not be very expensive. Cost up front then may not be expensive, and is likely less expensive than setting up a brick and mortar store.There are some keys, or thoughts, that can help.For a brick and mortar store location, as indicated above, and products are very important to keep down competition and be assured of customers. However the products should be repeat purchases, and the more frequent, the better. Fast food restaurants, grocery stores, and drugstores are apt to do well because of the repetitive buying, if they are not near or next to a chain. If one is setting up an independent business next to a chain with the same general products then there must also be specific items not carried by the chain, or the item quality must be better than the chain.A key item for an online business, even more than for a brick and mortar store is advertising. This can be done for free, or bought, but either way the store and particularly the products must be in front of surfers constantly. Either one must spend a lot of time advertising, or hire it done.Products should be unique, desirable, and useful. One can sell products that others have on the Internet if they can advertise better than the others, meaning getting your products up every time a surfer looks for your products or anything near to what you sell. Then you must have a good sales pitch.What about unique products. Take software for example. Can you find a programming student that is writing or has written, a useful software program and has not sold it ? That is possible at Universities and less likely among working programmers. Perhaps you could buy all rights to the software, or go into a partnership with the programmer. Then you have a unique product to sell.How about contacting a company, such as GE, and arrange to have a line of small products drop shipped for you ? That is a possibility.What about producers of children’s products. There are a raft of them from clothing to books, to toys. Would those producers drop ship for you.What are you expert at ? Write a book or manual explaining it in detail and sell it. Or perhaps begin a consulting service got that expertise.Then there is the possibility of outsourcing your own product where it can be drop shipped also. From books to you name it can be produced overseas in China, India, and other places.Do not jump in a pond, the Internet, crowded by others selling the same products. Think outside that box.Good luck at whatever you sell.

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It Never Fails – Taking Care of Emergencies with a Payday Loan

Upon getting information about an upcoming school science fair and the need to consider a topic of interest, many students will typically have no idea where to get started. While the science fair is typically a common occurrence in any school at any grade level, there are different types of topics that should be taken a look at depending on the age of the student. After first taking a look at the many different categories of science projects, you will be able to locate a suitable choice of topic to take to the next level.There is a wide variety of categories that fall under the types of science projects that can be chosen for a school science fair. These include biology, chemistry, physics, microbiology, biochemistry, medicine, environmental, mathematics, engineering, and earth science. While you may not have yet learned very much in any of these categories, don’t be afraid to see what each one entails. Taking a good look at your interests will allow you to focus on the right direction to take.Many resources are also available for those who are unsure as to the topic they are wanting to use to create their science projects. If you take a look at the topics that fall under the biology category, you will likely notice that there are topics that deal with plants, animals, and humans. For those who are in 2nd grade or 3rd grade, an interesting topic may be to determine if ants are picky over what type of food they eat. While this topic might not be of interest to an 8th grader, it is certainly something in the biology category that an elementary school student would enjoy.Along with the biology category, a high school student may want to take a look at diffusion and osmosis in animal cells as this would be a more appropriate topic for the grade level. A student in 6th grade would be more advanced than an elementary school student, but not as advanced as a high school student. At this middle school grade level, a topic of how pH levels effect the lifespan of a tadpole may be of interest.Whichever resource is used to locate a topic for science projects, it is always a good idea to consider the grade level of the student prior to making a selection. It is always assumed to be best to have a project at an appropriate level in order to keep the attention of the student and provide a fun and enjoyable learning experience.